Quantifying uncertainty in intervention effectiveness with structured expert judgement: an application to obstetric fistula

Type:

The Question

What can structured expert judgement teach us about intervention effectiveness?

What we found

Through the classical method of structured expert judgement, we obtained estimates of long-term disability and death following obstetric fistula repair in low- and mid-income countries (LMICs). Experts expressed more certainty about outcomes following treatment in high-volume fistula centers rather than low-volume district hospitals.

Why it matters

Data on intervention effectiveness in LMICs is tough to get. This study demonstrates that expert judgement can be used to supplement existing data sources to inform policy making.