What’s behind the state estimates
State-level estimates are driven by:
- Date of seeding of the epidemic based on available testing data
- Presence of major metro cities where initial transmission is more rapid
- Flight connections to COVID-19 affected countries
- Age and demographic variables
- High – Trajectory with current lockdowns but insufficient physical distancing or compliance.
- Medium – Most likely scenario with moderate to full compliance but no change in virulence or temperature/humidity sensitivity.
- Low – Optimistic scenario with decreased virulence and temperature/humidity sensitivity.