OFFICES IN Washington D.C. & New Delhi

The Center For Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy

India State-Level Estimates

What’s behind the state estimates

State-level estimates are driven by:

  • Date of seeding of the epidemic based on available testing data
  • Presence of major metro cities where initial transmission is more rapid
  • Flight connections to COVID-19 affected countries
  • Age and demographic variables



  • High – Trajectory with current lockdowns but insufficient physical distancing or compliance.
  • Medium – Most likely scenario with moderate to full compliance but no change in virulence or temperature/humidity sensitivity.
  • Low – Optimistic scenario with decreased virulence and temperature/humidity sensitivity.


COVID-19 India: State-level Estimates of Hospitalization Needs- April 2, 2020

COVID-19 India: Predicted Infections and Hospitalizations- March 24, 2020