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The Center For Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy

Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: a mathematical modeling approach

The Question

The extent of tuberculosis in high-burden regions is difficult to measure directly, but it may be possible to estimate TB incidence in other ways. This study from CDDEP and partners mathematically models transmission dynamics of TB based on previous estimates from China, Korea, and the Philippines, and applies the model to estimate the incidence of TB in India.

What we found

When applied to India, the study model suggests an annual incidence of smear-positive TB of 89.9 per 100,000 population. Results also indicate that while an urban TB case infects more individuals per year, a rural TB case remains infectious for appreciably longer, suggesting the need for interventions tailored to these different settings.

Why it matters

According to the study authors, “Simple models of TB transmission, in conjunction with necessary data, can offer approaches to burden estimation that complement those currently being used.”


Image via Yale Rosen (CC BY-SA 2.0)